Ro Khanna

Mike Honda Supporters Resort to Race-Baiting

Mike Honda Supporters Resort to Race-Baiting Short Notes No Responses »

Jun 012014

Supporters of incumbent Congress member Mike Honda have reached a new low. They’ve sent out a xenophobic mailer falsely accusing Indian-American candidate Ro Khanna of wanting to “outsource our jobs”. The mailer plays on old fears of Indians stealing American jobs and is meant to both exploit any lingering racism among white voters against Indian-Americans.

It is profoundly sad that this is being done to support Mike Honda, a man who has fought against racial discrimination his whole life. It is also sad that Honda’s campaign will not distance Mike Honda from this mailer by denouncing it . I don’t want to believe that Mike Honda knows about the mailers.

It seems to me that Honda’s staffers are much more interested in having Honda elected at any cost, than they are in preserving the dignity of a man who has been a voice for the disenfranchised for a generation. I think Mike Honda and his legacy deserve better.

Marga’s June 2014 Voter Guide

Marga’s June 2014 Voter Guide Politics No Responses »

May 202014

Here are my voting recommendations for the June 2014 election. I’m a liberal Democrat, and the issues I’m most concerned about are good governance, transparency and accountability and the protection of human rights and civil liberties. I only include competitive races for which I have a recommendation.

STATEWIDE

Secretary of State: Derek Cressman
The Secretary of State is responsible for elections in California. We need someone who is clean, ethical and committed to a democratic political process. Derek Cressman headed a campaign reform advocacy organization and, among other things, wants to create a vetted multi-media online voter guide with actual useful information for voters.

Controller: Betty Yee
Betty has the financial preparation and attention to detail that the office requires, plus she is committed to good governance and transparency. Her Democratic opponent, Assembly speaker John Perez, has the arrogance to believe he should be elected just because of his current position and did not even bother to submit a ballot statement.

Measure 42: Yes
This will force City governments to continue making agendas for public meetings available to the public even if the state does not reimburse them for the cost. It assures the public right to know.

ALAMEDA COUNTY

Superintendent of Schools: Jeff Bowser or Helen K. Foster
I heard the candidates speak both at the interviews for the Democratic and the Oakland Tribune endorsements. They all did equally well on general issues, Bowser and Thomas have the best understanding of the financial situation. Karen Monroe will make it past June on the strength of her ballot designation alone. Naomi Eason is great but seems less prepared. Ursula Reed has done little to help schools while a San Leandro Councilmember, instead putting her efforts into trying to get the communist Chinese flag to be flown over City Hall.

Measure AA: Yes
Not only should everyone have access to health care, when we don’t provide it for those who are most vulnerable, we endanger public health.

HAYWARD

Mayor: Francisco Zermeño
Zermeño provides the best combination of love for Hayward, commitment to the community and ability to relate to everyday people.

City Council: Rocky Fernandez and Sara Lamnin
There are a number of good candidates, but I think these two have the greatest political experience and clearest progressive values to move Hayward forward.

CONGRESS

CD 15: Ellen Corbett
Ellen is quiet but she’s a work horse, passing legislation that protects consumer rights and the environment. Her opponent, sitting Congressman Eric Swalwell, is a show horse with one intention only: remain in Congress at every cost, no matter how many ethical lines are crossed (including paying for delegates to vote for him and using congressional mail for campaign purposes). He has voted against civil liberties and opposes religious equality.

CD 17: Ro Khanna
Mike Honda is as true-blue a liberal as they come, and I’m very appreciative for his service, but Khanna holds the same essential positions, only he does it with a greater, more thought-out foundation, more vigor and intelligence. Khanna has the potential to be the Democratic Party’s answer to both Paul Ryan and Ted Cruz and a true political leader for his generation and the country.

CALIFORNIA SENATE

SD 10: Bob Wieckowski
Wieckowski is another quiet leader, turning out legislation that helps people without much fanfare. An ACLU-vetted bill to combat “revenge pornography” is just one of his latest accomplishments. The San Francisco Chronicle’s endorsement makes it clear why everyone should vote for this man.

CALIFORNIA ASSEMBLY

AD 16: Tim Sbranti
Sbranti has done a good job of handling different interests in Dublin. While he’s not nearly as progressive as I, he’s the most progressive of the bunch.

AD 25: Teresa Cox
Teresa Cox is a fighter, she’s the first African-American woman to receive a degree in nuclear engineering, and she’s very smart, pragmatic and committed. Those are all faculties that I believe we need in the Assembly. She is also less indebted to special interests that some of her opponents.

Republican Candidates Join the Fray in Races Against Honda / Swalwell

Republican Candidates Join the Fray in Races Against Honda / Swalwell Short Notes No Responses »

Mar 052014

The Congressional races in CD 15 (most of southern Alameda county) and CD 17 (Fremont/Newark & northern Santa Clara county) have suddenly become much more interesting with the addition of bonafide Republican candidates.

In CD 15, State Senator Ellen Corbett has issued a challenge to incumbent Eric Swalwell from the left. Swalwell ran against long-time Congressman Pete Stark in 2012 by presenting a clear challenge from the right and rallying Republican votes. He was helped in that endeavor by the lack of a Republican candidate in the race. Since then, Swalwell has turned to the Democratic center. He’s become an assistant minority whip and has voted with minority leader Pelosi in all but one or two occasions. He was recently endorsed by President Obama.

The Republicans in his district, who have long felt betrayed by Swalwell’s move leftward, have now put out one of their own to challenge him. Hugh Bussell, a Livermore resident and Vice Chair of the Alameda County GOP, pulled papers to run against Swalwell yesterday.

It’s been clear for a while that Corbett’s best hope from defeating Swalwell would be in the June elections, if a Republican challenger joined the fray. The district has roughly 40% Republican voters, so it’s likely that a serious Republican candidate will advance to the November general elections. Of the two Democrats, conventional wisdom would have Swalwell advancing. Not only is he the incumbent, but he has been a prolific fundraiser – with over $1M in contributions vs. Corbett’s $200K -; he’s also an energetic campaigner and master of social media. However, Swalwell was only able to garner about a quarter of the Democratic vote in 2012. He has not released poll numbers showing how he’s doing in the race, but the fact that he is so vehemently seeking the Democratic endorsement – he not only sought Obama’s endorsement but is also paying delegates to go to the Democratic Convention to vote to endorse him -, suggests he’s actually worried. Recent reports that he hired the daughter of a big campaign-contributor for a taxpayer-funded job, might hurt him with Democratic voters tired of corruption and fundraising scandals in their party.

Meanwhile, the race for CD 17 appears to be getting crowded – and more interesting. In addition to Mike Honda and Ro Khanna, six candidates have pulled papers to run in the race.

Republican anesthesiology professor Vanila Singh announced her run earlier this year and has already raised over $100K. A member of a Hindu nationalist organization, Singh was recruited to run to put pressure on fellow Indian-American Ro Khanna to support giving Gujarati minister Narendra Modi a visa to visit the United States. While Khanna has remained steadfast on his refusal to support Modi, Singh’s efforts at disrupting the election seem to have prompted another Indian-American candidate, Vinesh Singh Rathore, to enter the race. Rathore, a Google attorney who is registered (or was until recently) as a “declined to state”, already paid the $1740 filing.

Just yesterday, Sony recruiter Joel VanLandingham added his name to the list of candidates hoping to defeat Honda by paying the $1740 filing fee. While I haven’t yet determined what is VanLandingham’s party registration, his Facebook feed suggests he holds strong conservative views and is likely a Republican. Another Republican, Dave Chapman, who last challenged Ana Eshoo for CD 18 in 2012, has also pulled papers on the CD 17 race as has Mark Gonzales, a Republican patent agent from Newark.

Finally, Democrat Geby E. Espinosa has pulled papers to run for CD 17, in addition to Governor, Secretary of State and Insurance Commissioner in this election, and has run for numerous offices in the past.

While Rathore’s entrance into the race is not necessarily good news for Khanna – he may take some votes away from Vanila Singh, due to the name confusion between the two, but he might also take some third party votes from Khanna -, having a Republican join Vanila Singh in the race would help him tremendously. In a recent poll, Singh garnered 29% of the vote, but only when voters were told she was a Republican. That’s about the same percentage that the Republican candidate got in the June 2012 election. Multiple Republican candidates in the race would help split that portion of the vote, allowing Khanna to easily make it past the primary.

There is no certainty as to who the actual candidates will be in either race until they complete their filings. In CD 15, only Eric Swalwell has done so. In CD 17, Ro Khanna and Mike Honda seem to be the only ones to do so.

Honda’s New Poll Shows Khanna’s Path to Victory

Honda’s New Poll Shows Khanna’s Path to Victory Politics No Responses »

Mar 022014

Congressman Mike Honda

Congressman Mike Honda just released a new poll, commissioned on his behalf by Democracy for America. His campaign quickly touted poll numbers that show Honda beating Ro Khanna by around 20 points in a variety of scenarios. However, a close look at the numbers actually suggests that Honda is very vulnerable to losing the election.

The poll is actually four different polls (see below for results), each with one question. In the first instance, voters were asked whether they would vote for Democrat Mike Honda, Democrat Ro Khanna or Republican Vanila Singh. In the second poll, voters were asked the same question, without specifying the party affiliation of the candidates. The third poll matches Democrat Mike Honda vs. Democrat Ro Khanna while the fourth matches Democrat Mike Honda vs. Republican Vanila Singh. The polls have a relatively high margin of error, between 4.4% and 6.4%.

In both instances where Vanila Singh was identified as a Republican, she got about 30% of the vote. When Singh wasn’t identified as a Republican, she only commanded 11% of the vote (which might indicate gender bias in the election). About 28% of the voters in the CD 17 2012 open primary voted for the Republican candidate. Taking into account the margin of error in the polls and the fact that Singh has not started campaigning, and therefore is unlikely to have much name recognition so far, this means that Singh is basically attracting the full Republican vote.

Ro Khanna

Khanna, meanwhile, receives about 26% of the vote in a 3-person match, regardless of whether he is identified as a Democrat or not. This is up from the 5% he received in a March 2013 poll commissioned by Honda, and the 15% he was getting in an August 2013 poll, also by Democracy for America. Khanna’s numbers have been steadily rising, most likely as the result of the massive ground operations that his campaign has been conducting in the last year. Knocking on doors is expensive and time consuming, but considered the best way to get firm voter support.

According to the poll, when Honda and Khanna are matched only against each other, as they’re likely to be for the general election, Honda gets 61% of the vote against Khanna’s 39%. What this means, is that at this stage in the campaign, the Republican vote is split down the middle between the two Democratic candidates (Honda gets a couple of more points, but within the margin of error). As of now, Republicans are not expressing a preference for Khanna. This both brings light as to what Khanna’s strategy has been so far – concentrate in converting as many Democratic voters as possible through personal interactions – and suggests what his path to victory for the November General elections is: continue converting Democrats plus converting the full Republican vote to himself. Given that he still has about $2M in the bank, and there is no indication he has lost the ability to raise more, he has the tools to get there.

First, of course, he has to get past the June primary. The poll numbers put him at a statistical dead even with Singh. But that is only as long as Singh is the only Republican candidate in the race. If another Republican candidate runs, chances are that they will split the Republican vote. There seems to be a high likelihood that this will indeed happen.

In addition to Honda, Khanna and Singh, four candidates have pulled papers to run for the CD 17 race. Geby E Espinosa, a Democrat, seems to be a perennial candidate. He also pulled papers to run for Governor, Secretary of State and Insurance Commissioner in this election, and has run for numerous offices in the past. Dave Chapman ran as a Republican against Ana Eshoo in CD 18 in 2012. The Mark Gonzales who pulled papers in Alameda County, is likely to be Newark patent agent Mark James Gonzales, a registered Republican. Finally, Vinesh Singh Rathore has already paid the $1740 filing fee to run on this race. Now an attorney with Google, Singh Rathore was an associate in the Virgina’s office of Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati until 2010; Ro Khanna works at the firm’s Palo Alto office. Singh Rathore is registered as a Declined to State.

Once Khanna gets past June, he will still have the challenge of attracting the Republican votes without alienating the Democratic voters whom already backed him. To do so, he is positioning himself as a pragmatist Democrat, and one that will be able to work with both parties. While both campaigns have been taking stabs at each other, Khanna’s strategy may well allow him to win without waging a hard core negative campaign on the incumbent. That may very well be a first.

NEW CA-17 polling via Public Policy Polling (PPP) on behalf of Democracy for America (Feb. 13-16, 2014):

If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, and the choices were Democrat Ro Khanna, Republican Vanila Singh, or Democrat Mike Honda, for whom would you vote?
Ro Khanna………………………………………………26%
Vanila Singh…………………………………………….29%
Mike Honda…………………………………………….. 45%
(Asked of 270 CA-17 voters – MOE 6%)

If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, and the choices were Ro Khanna, Vanila Singh, and Mike Honda, for whom would you vote?
Ro Khanna ……………………………………………… 27%
Vanila Singh ……………………………………………. 11%
Mike Honda…………………………………………….. 62%
(Asked of 235 CA-17 voters – MOE 6.4% )

If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, and the choices were Democrat Ro Khanna and Democrat Mike Honda, for whom would you vote?
Ro Khanna………………………………………………39%
Mike Honda…………………………………………….. 61%
(Asked of 505 CA-17 voters – MOE 4.4% )

If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, and the choices were Republican Vanila Singh and Democrat Mike Honda, for whom would you vote?
Vanila Singh ……………………………………………. 31%
Mike Honda…………………………………………….. 69%
(Asked of 505 CA-17 voters – MOE 4.4% )

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mike Honda is handling his job as U.S. Congressman?
Approve …………………………………………………. 61%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
No opinion………………………………………………. 8%
(Asked of 505 CA-17 voters – MOE 4.4% )

Note: This article was edited to note Vinesh Singh Rathore’s full name and party affiliation.

Alameda Democrats Endorse Barbara Lee and Mike Honda, but not Eric Swalwell

Alameda Democrats Endorse Barbara Lee and Mike Honda, but not Eric Swalwell ACDCC, Politics No Responses »

Feb 072014

Battle for AD 15 and CD 15 Democratic endorsement moves to the State Convention

Feb 8 Update

Congress: In CD 13, Barbara Leee was recommended for endorsement, with 100% of the vote. I was wrong about CD 15, and Eric Swalwell got the majority of the vote, though not enough to get a recommendation. The fight for the endorsement goes up to the Convention, where it will probably come to the floor, giving Ellen Corbett an advantage. Stay tuned. As predicted, in CD 17 Mike Honda easily got the endorsement. Indeed, Ro Khanna did not even bother to show up to the meeting, probably thinking that his time was better spent campaigning.

Senate: Mary Hayashi did show up and made some vague accusations against Bob Wieckowski, but couldn’t get even one vote. Wieckowski easily got the recommendation for the endorsement for SD 10, with a handful of votes going to Roman Reed.

Assembly: I was surprised to see that a clear majority of the votes in AD 15 went to Elizabeth Echols, though not enough to break the 70% and give her the recommendation. The endorsement thus goes to the Convention. As predicted, Andy Katz got a few votes, but none went to either Sam Kang nor Pamela Price-Crawley. Both civil rights lawyers were pretty impressive, however, and I’m interested in hearing more from both of them. Tony Thurmond‘s vote count may not have impressed, but he’s a dynamic and inspiring speaker and made an impression even with my very politically jaded 12-year-old. While Echols is likely to win at the endorsement caucus at the convention, if Thurmond can pull her name out of consent – which he may very well be able to – and send this to the floor of the convention, he has a very good chance of winning. Echols may be solid, but she’s not an exciting candidate.

Also as predicted, Rob Bonta and Bill Quirk easily got the endorsements for AD 18 and AD 20 respectively. No endorsement recommendation was made for AD 25, and nobody got enough votes for this to go up to the convention. Craig Steckler got the most votes, but Kansen Chu wasn’t far behind, with Teresa Cox trailing both. Armando Gomez didn’t get any votes. While Steckler called himself a progressive Democrat, almost all his campaign loot comes from police chiefs and law enforcement, which suggests he isn’t going to Sacramento to fight for civil liberties and against the prison-industrial complex. Mik

—–

The California Democratic Party will be conducting pre-endorsement conferences throughout the state this weekend. Members of the Democratic State Central Committee (DSCC) and other eligible Democrats will meet to listen to the different candidates that are competing for the Party’s endorsement in their respective districts and will vote on whom should get it. In races where a Democrat is endorsed by the party, other Democrats are encouraged to drop out.

Most of Alameda County, including San Leandro, falls within the Party’s region 5, and the caucus for our region will take place on Saturday, Feb. 8, starting at 2 PM at the Laborers Local 34 hall, located at 29475 Mission Blvd in Hayward. Any Democrat is welcome to attend.

While the vote count happens after the candidates have an opportunity to speak, in reality most candidates have been going around picking up vote-by-mail ballots from their supporters. Candidates who get 70% of the vote at the pre-endorsement conference are placed in the consent calendar for Party’s endorsement at the State Party Convention which will take place in early March – though their endorsement can be challenged with signatures of either 20% of DSCC members in their district or statewide. If no candidate gets 70% of the vote, but at least one gets 50%, there will be an endorsement caucus at the Convention, where they will need to garner 50% or 60% of the vote (depending on incumbency status), to get on consent. The same will happen if an endorsement is challenged.

In order to qualify for the Democratic endorsement, a candidate must be a registered Democrat and pay a fee ranging from $250 to $500.

Here are the candidates who are vying for the Democratic endorsement in Region 5

Congressional District 13

The only candidate running for the endorsement is incumbent Barbara Lee, who will easily get it.

Congressional District 15

Incumbent congressman Eric Swalwell battles State Senator Ellen Corbett for the endorsement. My bet is that if any candidate gets the endorsement tomorrow, it’ll be Corbett. I also bet that if one of them gets it, the other will have the endorsement challenged and it will go the Convention.

Congressional District 17

Here, congressman Mike Honda holds a significant advantage over challenger Ro Khanna. Khanna ran a successful slate at last year’s delegate elections and he may have a few other votes, but they will likely not be enough to prevent Honda from getting the endorsement. They may be enough for a challenge, but Honda is sure to get the endorsement at the Convention. Linguist Philip Bralich is also running for the endorsement, but I don’t believe he’ll get even one vote.

Assembly District 15

There are no incumbents in this race, but there are five candidate vying for the endorsement. Preliminary endorsements suggest that the two actual contenders are Alameda County Democratic Central Committee member Elizabeth Echols and former Richmond City Councilmember Tony Thurmond. EBMUD Director Andy Katz may get a few votes, but it seems unlikely that either civil rights attorneys Sam Kang or Pamela Price-Crawley will get any. The latter doesn’t even have a campaign website. My guess is that at least one of the candidates will get 50% of the vote, and the endorsement for this race will go to the Convention.

Assembly Districts 18 and 20

The only candidate running for AD 18 is incumbent Rob Bonta and for AD 20 is incumbent Bill Quirk, so both have it in the bag.

Assembly District 25

Four Democrats are vying for the open seat being left by Bob Wieckowski. San Jose Councilmember Kansen Chu battles Ohlone Community College Board Trustee Teresa Cox, Milpitas Councilmember Armando Gomez and former Fremont Police Chief Craig Steckler. I know nothing about the voters in that race, but given the crowded field it seems unlikely that anyone will get the endorsement tomorrow or even send this to the Convention.

Senate District 10

This is the race that actually makes me want to go to the conference (I already sent out my ballot). Assemblymember Bob Wieckowski is running against former Assemblymember and convicted thief Mary Hayashi. Also in the race is stem-cell-research-activist Roman Reed. Hayashi hasn’t even bothered to set up a campaign site, and she hasn’t done any fundraising lately (though she does have a lot of money from previous races she can use), but she did apply for the Democratic endorsement, so she’s presumably running. It’s unlikely she’ll get any endorsements votes, however. Reed may get a few, but Wieckowski should easily get the endorsement and keep it on consent.

I’ll post results tomorrow.

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