political campaigns

Honda’s New Poll Shows Khanna’s Path to Victory

Honda’s New Poll Shows Khanna’s Path to Victory Politics No Responses »

Mar 022014

Congressman Mike Honda

Congressman Mike Honda just released a new poll, commissioned on his behalf by Democracy for America. His campaign quickly touted poll numbers that show Honda beating Ro Khanna by around 20 points in a variety of scenarios. However, a close look at the numbers actually suggests that Honda is very vulnerable to losing the election.

The poll is actually four different polls (see below for results), each with one question. In the first instance, voters were asked whether they would vote for Democrat Mike Honda, Democrat Ro Khanna or Republican Vanila Singh. In the second poll, voters were asked the same question, without specifying the party affiliation of the candidates. The third poll matches Democrat Mike Honda vs. Democrat Ro Khanna while the fourth matches Democrat Mike Honda vs. Republican Vanila Singh. The polls have a relatively high margin of error, between 4.4% and 6.4%.

In both instances where Vanila Singh was identified as a Republican, she got about 30% of the vote. When Singh wasn’t identified as a Republican, she only commanded 11% of the vote (which might indicate gender bias in the election). About 28% of the voters in the CD 17 2012 open primary voted for the Republican candidate. Taking into account the margin of error in the polls and the fact that Singh has not started campaigning, and therefore is unlikely to have much name recognition so far, this means that Singh is basically attracting the full Republican vote.

Ro Khanna

Khanna, meanwhile, receives about 26% of the vote in a 3-person match, regardless of whether he is identified as a Democrat or not. This is up from the 5% he received in a March 2013 poll commissioned by Honda, and the 15% he was getting in an August 2013 poll, also by Democracy for America. Khanna’s numbers have been steadily rising, most likely as the result of the massive ground operations that his campaign has been conducting in the last year. Knocking on doors is expensive and time consuming, but considered the best way to get firm voter support.

According to the poll, when Honda and Khanna are matched only against each other, as they’re likely to be for the general election, Honda gets 61% of the vote against Khanna’s 39%. What this means, is that at this stage in the campaign, the Republican vote is split down the middle between the two Democratic candidates (Honda gets a couple of more points, but within the margin of error). As of now, Republicans are not expressing a preference for Khanna. This both brings light as to what Khanna’s strategy has been so far – concentrate in converting as many Democratic voters as possible through personal interactions – and suggests what his path to victory for the November General elections is: continue converting Democrats plus converting the full Republican vote to himself. Given that he still has about $2M in the bank, and there is no indication he has lost the ability to raise more, he has the tools to get there.

First, of course, he has to get past the June primary. The poll numbers put him at a statistical dead even with Singh. But that is only as long as Singh is the only Republican candidate in the race. If another Republican candidate runs, chances are that they will split the Republican vote. There seems to be a high likelihood that this will indeed happen.

In addition to Honda, Khanna and Singh, four candidates have pulled papers to run for the CD 17 race. Geby E Espinosa, a Democrat, seems to be a perennial candidate. He also pulled papers to run for Governor, Secretary of State and Insurance Commissioner in this election, and has run for numerous offices in the past. Dave Chapman ran as a Republican against Ana Eshoo in CD 18 in 2012. The Mark Gonzales who pulled papers in Alameda County, is likely to be Newark patent agent Mark James Gonzales, a registered Republican. Finally, Vinesh Singh Rathore has already paid the $1740 filing fee to run on this race. Now an attorney with Google, Singh Rathore was an associate in the Virgina’s office of Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati until 2010; Ro Khanna works at the firm’s Palo Alto office. Singh Rathore is registered as a Declined to State.

Once Khanna gets past June, he will still have the challenge of attracting the Republican votes without alienating the Democratic voters whom already backed him. To do so, he is positioning himself as a pragmatist Democrat, and one that will be able to work with both parties. While both campaigns have been taking stabs at each other, Khanna’s strategy may well allow him to win without waging a hard core negative campaign on the incumbent. That may very well be a first.

NEW CA-17 polling via Public Policy Polling (PPP) on behalf of Democracy for America (Feb. 13-16, 2014):

If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, and the choices were Democrat Ro Khanna, Republican Vanila Singh, or Democrat Mike Honda, for whom would you vote?
Ro Khanna………………………………………………26%
Vanila Singh…………………………………………….29%
Mike Honda…………………………………………….. 45%
(Asked of 270 CA-17 voters – MOE 6%)

If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, and the choices were Ro Khanna, Vanila Singh, and Mike Honda, for whom would you vote?
Ro Khanna ……………………………………………… 27%
Vanila Singh ……………………………………………. 11%
Mike Honda…………………………………………….. 62%
(Asked of 235 CA-17 voters – MOE 6.4% )

If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, and the choices were Democrat Ro Khanna and Democrat Mike Honda, for whom would you vote?
Ro Khanna………………………………………………39%
Mike Honda…………………………………………….. 61%
(Asked of 505 CA-17 voters – MOE 4.4% )

If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, and the choices were Republican Vanila Singh and Democrat Mike Honda, for whom would you vote?
Vanila Singh ……………………………………………. 31%
Mike Honda…………………………………………….. 69%
(Asked of 505 CA-17 voters – MOE 4.4% )

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mike Honda is handling his job as U.S. Congressman?
Approve …………………………………………………. 61%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
No opinion………………………………………………. 8%
(Asked of 505 CA-17 voters – MOE 4.4% )

Note: This article was edited to note Vinesh Singh Rathore’s full name and party affiliation.

Leland Yee: Meet Derek Cressman. He’s Running Against You

Leland Yee: Meet Derek Cressman. He’s Running Against You People, Politics No Responses »

Feb 272014

Sen. Leland Yee

I got a call from State Senator Leland Yee’s campaign. He’s running for Secretary of State and seeking the Democratic endorsement along with Senator Alex Padilla and Derek Cressman.

Yee’s campaign told me that Speaker John Perez* had asked Democrats to not endorse on that race, so as to not create unnecessary divisions within the party. You’d think that if Perez didn’t want divisions he’d withdraw from the race for Controller against the better qualified Betty Yee. Anyway, Yee wants me to vote “no endorsement”. I bet he does – he’s probably afraid the endorsement will go to Padilla.

Derek Cressman

I told the person who called me that I was planning to vote for Cressman. “Who,?” she asked. Apparently they had no idea than someone other than Padilla was running for the endorsement. Strange, as Yee actually spoke at the Alameda County Democratic Party Unity Dinner alongside Padilla and Cressman (watch the video).

I’m sorry, but if someone who is running for Secretary of State cannot keep track of the candidates in his own race, I can’t imagine he’ll be able to keep track of all the state candidates and all state measures. Yee may be a nice guy, but he needs to bring more feng shui to his life.

Sen Alex Padilla

Padilla, of course, had a lobbyst illegally throw him a fundraiser and has refused to return the ill-gotten contributions. He has and was recently endorsed by the United Farm Workers. The latter might not sound like a bad thing, until you realize that the UFW also endorsed Mary Hayashi, she of the sticky fingers and lust for leather leggings. Padilla’s biggest claim to fame, however, is that he wants to pass a law allowing for the warrantless use of drones by law enforcement.

So Derek Cressman it is. The guy actually cares about transparency and accountability in government. Imagine that.

Apparently I misunderstood the campaign helper who called me. It wasn’t Speaker John Perez, but Party Chairman John Burton who asked candidates for statewide office to not seek the party’s endorsement. Leland Yee must be confident that he won’t get it, so he’s heeding the request. Padilla continues to ask for it. I’m still voting for Cressman.

First They Stole, Now They Lie: Why Neither Mary Hayashi nor Stewart Chen Should be in Office

First They Stole, Now They Lie: Why Neither Mary Hayashi nor Stewart Chen Should be in Office People, Politics No Responses »

Feb 142014

liar-big I am a liberal, of the bleeding heart variety. I think if you’ve committed a crime – a real one, with an actual victim – and you’ve done your time, the slate should be wiped clean. You should be able to vote, take the Bar, get a job. But I also think that if you want to regain the public trust, you need to take responsibility for your actions. If you don’t, then you have no business running for public office.

Take disgraced Assemblywoman and State Senate candidate Mary Hayashi. During her last term in the Assembly, Hayashi went to Neiman Marcus carrying an empty NM shopping bag and proceeded to fill it with expensive clothing, she then walked out of the store without paying for the items. Store employees were on the lookout for her, as she was suspected of having done the same thing a week before. While Hayashi plead guilty (or no contest, which has the same effect), she never took responsibility for her actions. Instead, she made excuse for her behavior (“I was distracted“, “I had a brain tumor“) and even now, won’t admit to what she did.

Mary Hayashi – mugshot

I would have been totally prepared to sympathize with Mary Hayashi if had she admitted she had a shoplifting problem. Shoplifting is often the result of a psychological disorder and can become one of the hardest addictions to kick. It’s a common affliction, however. About 9% of Americans shoplift, and the vast majority of them don’t do it for gain. Before getting into politics, Mary Hayashi was a tireless advocate for mental health and, in the Assembly, made it her priority to “break the culture of silence” about these issues. Yet, when she had the opportunity to speak out about her own struggles and thus help others, she instead retreated into lying. That’s disappointing, but it also shows that she is not at a place where she can take responsibility for her actions and be truthful and therefore, she is not trustworthy. The public saw through her when she ran for County Supervisor in 2012, and will see through her again as she runs for State Senate.

Alameda Council member Stewart Chen seems to suffer from the same affliction: an unwillingness to own up to his crimes and learn from his mistakes. Back in the early 1990’s, Chen was caught in a massive auto insurance fraud scheme. An Asian gang was staging fake car accidents between insured individuals, the fake accident victims would go see Chen, a chiropractor, who would make false claims about their injuries so the individuals could file fraudulent claims with the insurance company and himself file for treatment the fake victims didn’t need or get. In all, the gang seems to have stolen about $1M from the insurance companies.

Alameda City Council member Stewart Chen

These fake accident victims told the grand jury that they would go to Chen’s office, sign in and then leave without receiving treatment. Other times, their signatures were faked. One victim received some treatment, but for pain unrelated to the stage accident.

Chen plead guilty to two misdemeanors, paid a large fine, completed probation, and in due time his record was expunged. He thought nobody would ever find out about his crime and kept it quiet.

Earlier this week, when Chen’s criminal background came to light, he had two choices. He could have admitted what he did, show remorse and speak about the lesson he learned. I would have been sympathetic. Chen, like me, grew up in a corrupt society under a brutal dictatorship. Ethical and moral lines are often blurred in those environments. Of course, Chen was 30 years old and had lived in America for over a decade when he was indicted, but sometimes it takes something dramatic to make you realize your own moral flaws.

Unfortunately, it would seem that being convicted of fraud did not have that effect on Chen. Instead of showing remorse for his actions, Chen hast taken Hayashi’s approach and claims he wasn’t really guilty. “The fact is that I unknowingly treated patients who were part of an auto insurance fraud scheme run by a local attorney. I had no idea what they were doing and was not part of their scheme. I assumed the patients were legitimately injured.” Which, of course, does not address the fact that he falsified medical records and charged for treatment he did not provide. Like with Hayashi, you have to wonder if he actually thinks that people will believe on his innocence despite the evidence against him and the guilty plea.

Having a criminal past should does not and need not preclude anyone from seeking public office. But the least we should demand of candidates to public office who have been convicted of crimes involving dishonesty is that they show they’ve learned the error of their ways. If they continue to be dishonest about the very crimes they were convicted of committing, nothing will stop them from stealing and lying to the public whenever it suits their needs.

I endorse Ro Khanna for Congress

I endorse Ro Khanna for Congress Politics No Responses »

Jan 242014

Ro Khanna

Here is Why

For the second time in less than two years, I am shifting my public support from a political candidate to his opponent. I did it in 2012 when, after having endorsed Rob Bonta for California Assembly, I learned that Abel Guillen‘s political views more closely aligned with mine. I am doing so again now, by announcing my endorsement of Ro Khanna, who is running against Mike Honda for Congress in CD 17. My reasons for switching this time are very different.

I have the utmost respect for Mike Honda. His record of supporting human rights and civil liberties, while advocating a progressive agenda, is exemplary. You can count on Honda to vote the right way almost every time. Indeed, I think it says a lot that before this election, his biggest source of campaign contributions were human rights activists.

Honda, moreover, is an extremely pleasant legislator, well-liked by everyone who knows him. He has done very important work, in particular seeking justice for Japan’s comfort women and standing up for American Muslims. At first thought – and second and third and fourth – the idea of endorsing someone else seems crazy. And, indeed, it has taken me several months of careful thought to come to this decision.

I’ve come to it because while I am deeply appreciative about everything that Mike Honda has done in Congress, I think that Ro Khanna can and will do even more. Khanna is a one-in-a-generation sort of politician, a statesman-in-the-making who combines intellectual brilliance with a thorough understanding of our economic and political realities and a clear vision of what this country needs to advance. He is pragmatic about what can be accomplished in our current political environment, has concrete plans on how to reach out to legislators from all political persuasions, but he’s clear as to what is not up for compromise (things like human rights or a woman’s right to choose).

More importantly, Khanna is both convincing and inspiring. Khanna profoundly believes that the job of government is to promote the general welfare and it is a job it can get back to doing well. He believes in the political philosophy of the founding fathers, and in their dream of America as the political heir to Athens. When you hear him speak, his unique mix of optimism and pragmatism quickly becomes contagious. I fell under his spell when I interviewed him last year and you can notice similar reactions in journalists and bloggers who’ve interviewed him at length. It’s this effect which provides him with an ideologically-diverse base of financial and other support. Watch, for example, how emotional football legend Ronnie Lott becomes when speaking to Khanna about his expectations for his candidacy.

It’s been difficult to ignore, however, the parallels between Ro Khanna and Barack Obama. Obama also spun beautiful webs when running for office – he spoke about hope and restoring the rule of law, only to go back on pretty much all of his promises as soon as he was in office. Khanna started his political career walking precincts for Obama, and his current campaign is being run by Obama former operatives. For months, I’ve feared that Khanna was also a con.

But fears are ultimately prejudices, and neither I nor the country can afford to dwell in them. In reality, Khanna has been consistent on the political philosophy he’s expressed throughout the years. He first ran for Congress in 2004, as a statement of opposition to the war on Iraq and the Patriot Act. He has made it clear in interview after interview that he believes civil liberties are the cornerstone of democracy and that we must support them at home and abroad. People whom I respect and have known Khanna for far longer than I, believe he is the real deal and offer their support. Chief among them is Lawrence Lessig, a law professor and director of the Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics at Harvard University. Lessig is one of the foremost advocates of political reform in America, and has written and spoken widely on the corrupting influence of money in politics. I respect his opinion greatly. I also respect the opinions of teachers like Cheryl Cook-Kallio. Ro Khanna started volunteering in her classroom almost a decade ago because, he told her, his life had been changed by a teacher. She was proud to tell me how Khanna wrote a recommendation to the University of Chicago, his alma matter, for one of the students he mentored. That student just graduated law school and passed the bar.

Finding a person with the intellectual acumen, knowledge base and political, social and ethical values that Ro Khanna spouts is rare. Finding such a person who actually wants to get involved in politics and has the commitment and desire to make a difference, is rarer still. Finding someone with all those qualities that can also inspire others is almost impossible. As much as I like Mike Honda and appreciate the work he’s done, I want to see Ro Khanna have the chance to prove himself in Congress. For that reason, I endorse him.

I am not thrilled, however, about some of the positions that Khanna has taken – for example, concerning Congressional pay – and I have been disappointed at some of the childish antics that both campaigns have displayed. My public endorsement of Khanna will not prevent me from criticizing his policies and postures in the future. It should also put any criticisms I make of Honda into context.

Marga Lacabe

—

Full Disclosure: Khanna was one of the several politicians and labor groups who contributed to the slate of candidates with which I ran for Alameda County Democratic Central Committee in 2012.

Diana Souza: Will She or Won’t She?

Diana Souza: Will She or Won’t She? Politics No Responses »

Jan 152014

Diana Souza

And, more importantly, “Can she win?”

San Leandro City Council member Diana Souza is playing the old “will I, won’t I” game vis a vis running for Mayor.

On the one hand, she has been seeking the endorsement of highly placed Democrats. On the other hand, when asked in so many words whether she’s running for Mayor, she’s denied it.

While it’s likely that what she is doing is trying to assess whether she can garner enough political support to mount a credible challenge to Mayor Stephen Cassidy, she hurts her credibility by not being straight about it. If she does decide to run, that lack of honesty may come to haunt her.

Mayor Stephen Cassidy is profoundly disliked by Central Labor and, by extension, by many powerful elements in the Democratic party. Souza may feel she can exploit this vulnerability. However, Souza’s right wing ideology – she has opposed everything from urban farming to marijuana dispensaries to even discussing services for the homeless, while pushing for restricting civil liberties in town – is not likely to be well received within Democratic circles. Souza’s insistence that the flag of the People’s Republic of China be flown over City Hall, also suggest that she has very poor political instincts. Anyone endorsing Souza does so at their own peril.

Souza’s greatest problem, however, is that she is not actually a viable candidate for Mayor. Not only does she not have a base (though she will lean heavily on Benny Lee‘s connections within the Chinese community), but she has accomplished nothing in the seven years she has served in City Council. She ran with the single purpose of building a competitive swimming pool in San Leandro, but was unable to get this done due to opposition by the public. who wanted WW funds spent on a variety of projects. Since then, she’s had no initiatives and has served as a vote for the Police Department.

Souza also suffers from a lack of campaign experience. She ran in 2006 against Julian Polvorosa., an elderly barber and former Council member who had been pushed to run by former colleagues and showed no desire to actually be elected. Souza did a good job of putting signs around town and getting relatives to drop off some fliers, but didn’t need to create the grass root organization that pushed Cassidy into his 2010 win. She ran for re-election unopposed.

Souza will likely receive the support of the Police Union if she runs for Mayor. However, that is a double-edged sword in San Leandro. While she can expect thousands of dollars from them, police support of former Mayor Tony Santos was likely a key reason for why he lost the race. Indeed, current Councilmember Jim Prola blames news stories about Police Union contributions to his campaign for loosing him votes at the polls. She is also likely to have the support of the city employee union, but that will just remind voters of how she has put employee’s interests above those of taxpayers..

Her biggest problem, however, is that whatever dissatisfaction there is in San Leandro with Cassidy, extends to the Council as well. For example, she – along with Cassidy – voted to have the major downtown property sold to a developer for a fraction of its value, so as to be occupied by a drugstore that already has two branches downtown. She has also voted to give the Police Chief and City manager raises, while complaining there is no money for city services. Making a case that she’s any better than Cassidy will be tough.

Her candidacy, however, could precipitate another candidate jumping into the race. Any votes she takes from Cassidy, could help a non-establishment candidate take the plunge.

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