Helen Foster

Conventional Wisdom Wins in California June Election

Jun 042014

This is the second open primary that California voters faced, and what I, personally, have learned from it is that voter behavior was pretty much like in a regular primary.

To recap:

♦ Name Recognition Matters Greatly
Incumbents and candidates with generic names did particularly well. My guess is that Helen Foster‘s 2nd placing in the Alameda County Superintendent race was due greatly to her name. Similarly, there can be no explanation for either Leland Yee or Mary Hayashi placing third in the races, ahead of other candidates, beyond name recognition.

♦ Ballot Designation Matters
The best explanation for why unknown Republican candidate David Evans is currently in a three-way-tie for second place in the Controller’s race with Democrats John Perez and Betty Yee, is that his ballot designation was as “Chief Financial Officer”. His generic name probably helped as well. Indeed, Helen Foster might also have been helped by choosing the ballot designation “Teacher” rather than the “Educator” chosen by two of her losing competitors.

♦ Don’t Neglect Your Ballot Statement
I’m betting that Assembly Speaker John Perez’ poor showing in the Controller’s race is due to his lack of a candidate statement in the voter information pamphlet. For many voters that’s the only source of information about a race.

♦Incumbents Win
Incumbents, even those who faced well-funded and/or well-known opponents, fared very well this June. It’s probably correlated with a low-information electorate.

♦ Republicans will vote for Republican candidates and Democrats for Democratic candidates
While there has been much speculation about moderate Republicans and Democrats crossing party lines to help elect candidates with closer views to their own or just to play games, this doesn’t seem to have happened. Only in districts with very high Democratic registration are we seeing 2 Democrats face each other in the general election. Thus the prediction that you would have 2 Democrats in the CD 11 and 15, AD 16 and 25 and SD 10 races did not come to fruition.

♦ You have to be a Democrat or Republican to win (added)
With the rise of declined-to-state voter registrations in California, and an open primary that allows the top-two candidates, regardless of party, to advance to the November general election, there was much speculation that independent candidates finally got a chance. Voters made it clear that they don’t. Dan Schnur a former Republican strategist and head of the FPPC, took a chance by listing himself as NPP or “no party preference” in his run for Secretary of State and he came out below Leland Yee despite endorsements from major newspapers. All the buzz behind spiritual author Marianne Williamson and her high name recognition still could not overcome her running as an NPP.

♦ Negative Campaigning and Lying About Your Opponent Works
The research says otherwise, but all the dirty campaigning we saw in Alameda county seems to have worked.

♦ Polls are Wrong
Not many polls were released around here, but the ones released in the CD 17 race had Mike Honda capturing a much smaller percentage of the vote. Swalwell did not release his polls, but given that and the fact that he went after his Democratic opponent Ellen Corbett viciously, one can speculate that they didn’t have him winning by such a large margin either. Mary Hayashi claimed she had a poll that showed her getting the majority of the votes, though that was before her shoplifting video was released.

California & Alameda County Election Results Are In

California & Alameda County Election Results Are In Politics No Responses »

Jun 042014

Despite most open primary, most November contests will feature a Democrat vs. a Republican candidate

Races for Controller, State Superintendent, CD 15 and AD 16 still too close to call

Good morning San Leandro! Happy post-election day!

And what a stressful day it must be for many candidates in California! The mailed & poll-day ballots have been counted, but many races are close enough that the absentee ballots turned in at the polls and provisional ballots may very well make the difference.

This election, I think, has been characterized by voter apathy and lack of knowledge about candidates, so name recognition was key. Nothing else can explain that indicted-arms-dealer Leland Yee would come out third in the Secretary of State race with almost 300,000 votes!

Worth noting is that despite the open primary, most of the November elections in Alameda county are posed to be between a Democrat and a Republican. It would seem that Republicans will continue to vote for Republican candidates, rather than a more moderate Democrat, even when their candidate has no prayer of winning in November.

Results from the more certain contested races:

– Karen Monroe and Helen K. Foster will be competing against each other for Alameda County Superintendent of Schools. That means that we get our Chinese-flag-waving Ursula Reed in the City Council for 2 more years. I’m sure she’ll be lovely. Personally, I felt Foster had a good chance to win 2nd place based on her name alone, but she also was a smart campaigner, putting up signs and using internet ads to further that name recognition.

– With 3330 votes (so far), Barbara Halliday is the new Mayor-elect of Hayward. Look at that number again. Hayward has a population of almost 150,000 people and just 3330 voted for its new Mayor. As a comparison, San Leandro Mayor Cassidy was elected in 2010 with over 10K votes in a city with almost half its population. Hayward needs to change its elections to November and consider adopting ranked-choice voting.

– Incumbent Marvin Peixoto and Homeless Advocate Sara Lamnin have been elected to the Hayward City Council, both also with barely over 3K votes so far.

– As predicted by polls, Ro Khanna will be facing Mike Honda for the Congressional District 17 seat in November. The 20+ point spread between the candidates must be making Khanna nervous. He’ll need to decide whether to continue to play nice, as he builds support for a 2016 rematch or whether to take the gloves off and make the case why voters shouldn’t want to vote for Honda.

– It will be Bob Wieckowski vs. Republican Peter Kuo for Senate District 10. Mary Hayashi is left on the dust. Will she disappear quietly or will she use whatever money & fundraising power she has to go after her perceived enemies? We’ll just have to wait and see

– In Assembly District 15 (north Oakland to Pinole), it’ll be former Obama administration official & Alameda County Democratic Party member Elizabeth Echols vs. former Richmond Councilmember Tony Thurmond. With 6 other candidates out of the way, there will finally be a chance to distinguish between the two Democratic candidates. This, by the way, only one of two Alameda County races where two candidates from the same party will face each other in November.

– In Assembly District 25 (Fremont & parts of Santa Clara county), San Jose Councilmember Kansen Chu, a Democrat, will face Republican Bob Brunton. My endorsed candidate Teresa Cox came third, despite being heavily outspent by fourth-placer Armando Gomez (though those numbers could still change).

– Governor Jerry Brown will face Republican Neel Kashkari. A blow to the tea party, but also Democrats who hoped a Donnelly win would depress Republican turnout in November. My bet is that it wouldn’t make a difference.

– Alex Padilla will face Republican Pete Peterson for Secretary of State.

NOT DECIDED YET

– Eric Swalwell will clearly be re-elected to Congress come November. It’s not clear yet whether his opponent will be Democrat Ellen Corbett For Congress or Republican Hugh Bussell.

– It looks like the battle for Assembly District 16 (tri-valley) will be between Republican Catharine Baker and Dublin Mayor Tim Sbranti, a Democrat, come November. But I’m not calling it just yet because Steve Glazer was ahead of Sbranti for a while last night, and it’s hard to know how many ballots are left to count or how these will break.

– Republican candidate Ashley Swearengin heads to November in the Controller’s race. No way of knowing yet whether she’ll be facing Republican David Evans or Democrats John Perez or Betty Yee.

-Incumbent State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Torlakson, a Democrat, didn’t reach the 50% of the vote he needed to avoid a November runoff. His likely opponent will be Democrat Marshall Tuck, in what would be the only Democrat vs. Democrat race at the state level. Republican Lydia Gutiérrez may still catch up when all votes are counted, however.

Marga’s June 2014 Voter Guide

Marga’s June 2014 Voter Guide Politics No Responses »

May 202014

Here are my voting recommendations for the June 2014 election. I’m a liberal Democrat, and the issues I’m most concerned about are good governance, transparency and accountability and the protection of human rights and civil liberties. I only include competitive races for which I have a recommendation.

STATEWIDE

Secretary of State: Derek Cressman
The Secretary of State is responsible for elections in California. We need someone who is clean, ethical and committed to a democratic political process. Derek Cressman headed a campaign reform advocacy organization and, among other things, wants to create a vetted multi-media online voter guide with actual useful information for voters.

Controller: Betty Yee
Betty has the financial preparation and attention to detail that the office requires, plus she is committed to good governance and transparency. Her Democratic opponent, Assembly speaker John Perez, has the arrogance to believe he should be elected just because of his current position and did not even bother to submit a ballot statement.

Measure 42: Yes
This will force City governments to continue making agendas for public meetings available to the public even if the state does not reimburse them for the cost. It assures the public right to know.

ALAMEDA COUNTY

Superintendent of Schools: Jeff Bowser or Helen K. Foster
I heard the candidates speak both at the interviews for the Democratic and the Oakland Tribune endorsements. They all did equally well on general issues, Bowser and Thomas have the best understanding of the financial situation. Karen Monroe will make it past June on the strength of her ballot designation alone. Naomi Eason is great but seems less prepared. Ursula Reed has done little to help schools while a San Leandro Councilmember, instead putting her efforts into trying to get the communist Chinese flag to be flown over City Hall.

Measure AA: Yes
Not only should everyone have access to health care, when we don’t provide it for those who are most vulnerable, we endanger public health.

HAYWARD

Mayor: Francisco Zermeño
Zermeño provides the best combination of love for Hayward, commitment to the community and ability to relate to everyday people.

City Council: Rocky Fernandez and Sara Lamnin
There are a number of good candidates, but I think these two have the greatest political experience and clearest progressive values to move Hayward forward.

CONGRESS

CD 15: Ellen Corbett
Ellen is quiet but she’s a work horse, passing legislation that protects consumer rights and the environment. Her opponent, sitting Congressman Eric Swalwell, is a show horse with one intention only: remain in Congress at every cost, no matter how many ethical lines are crossed (including paying for delegates to vote for him and using congressional mail for campaign purposes). He has voted against civil liberties and opposes religious equality.

CD 17: Ro Khanna
Mike Honda is as true-blue a liberal as they come, and I’m very appreciative for his service, but Khanna holds the same essential positions, only he does it with a greater, more thought-out foundation, more vigor and intelligence. Khanna has the potential to be the Democratic Party’s answer to both Paul Ryan and Ted Cruz and a true political leader for his generation and the country.

CALIFORNIA SENATE

SD 10: Bob Wieckowski
Wieckowski is another quiet leader, turning out legislation that helps people without much fanfare. An ACLU-vetted bill to combat “revenge pornography” is just one of his latest accomplishments. The San Francisco Chronicle’s endorsement makes it clear why everyone should vote for this man.

CALIFORNIA ASSEMBLY

AD 16: Tim Sbranti
Sbranti has done a good job of handling different interests in Dublin. While he’s not nearly as progressive as I, he’s the most progressive of the bunch.

AD 25: Teresa Cox
Teresa Cox is a fighter, she’s the first African-American woman to receive a degree in nuclear engineering, and she’s very smart, pragmatic and committed. Those are all faculties that I believe we need in the Assembly. She is also less indebted to special interests that some of her opponents.