Teresa Cox

California & Alameda County Election Results Are In

California & Alameda County Election Results Are In Politics No Responses »

Jun 042014

Despite most open primary, most November contests will feature a Democrat vs. a Republican candidate

Races for Controller, State Superintendent, CD 15 and AD 16 still too close to call

Good morning San Leandro! Happy post-election day!

And what a stressful day it must be for many candidates in California! The mailed & poll-day ballots have been counted, but many races are close enough that the absentee ballots turned in at the polls and provisional ballots may very well make the difference.

This election, I think, has been characterized by voter apathy and lack of knowledge about candidates, so name recognition was key. Nothing else can explain that indicted-arms-dealer Leland Yee would come out third in the Secretary of State race with almost 300,000 votes!

Worth noting is that despite the open primary, most of the November elections in Alameda county are posed to be between a Democrat and a Republican. It would seem that Republicans will continue to vote for Republican candidates, rather than a more moderate Democrat, even when their candidate has no prayer of winning in November.

Results from the more certain contested races:

– Karen Monroe and Helen K. Foster will be competing against each other for Alameda County Superintendent of Schools. That means that we get our Chinese-flag-waving Ursula Reed in the City Council for 2 more years. I’m sure she’ll be lovely. Personally, I felt Foster had a good chance to win 2nd place based on her name alone, but she also was a smart campaigner, putting up signs and using internet ads to further that name recognition.

– With 3330 votes (so far), Barbara Halliday is the new Mayor-elect of Hayward. Look at that number again. Hayward has a population of almost 150,000 people and just 3330 voted for its new Mayor. As a comparison, San Leandro Mayor Cassidy was elected in 2010 with over 10K votes in a city with almost half its population. Hayward needs to change its elections to November and consider adopting ranked-choice voting.

– Incumbent Marvin Peixoto and Homeless Advocate Sara Lamnin have been elected to the Hayward City Council, both also with barely over 3K votes so far.

– As predicted by polls, Ro Khanna will be facing Mike Honda for the Congressional District 17 seat in November. The 20+ point spread between the candidates must be making Khanna nervous. He’ll need to decide whether to continue to play nice, as he builds support for a 2016 rematch or whether to take the gloves off and make the case why voters shouldn’t want to vote for Honda.

– It will be Bob Wieckowski vs. Republican Peter Kuo for Senate District 10. Mary Hayashi is left on the dust. Will she disappear quietly or will she use whatever money & fundraising power she has to go after her perceived enemies? We’ll just have to wait and see

– In Assembly District 15 (north Oakland to Pinole), it’ll be former Obama administration official & Alameda County Democratic Party member Elizabeth Echols vs. former Richmond Councilmember Tony Thurmond. With 6 other candidates out of the way, there will finally be a chance to distinguish between the two Democratic candidates. This, by the way, only one of two Alameda County races where two candidates from the same party will face each other in November.

– In Assembly District 25 (Fremont & parts of Santa Clara county), San Jose Councilmember Kansen Chu, a Democrat, will face Republican Bob Brunton. My endorsed candidate Teresa Cox came third, despite being heavily outspent by fourth-placer Armando Gomez (though those numbers could still change).

– Governor Jerry Brown will face Republican Neel Kashkari. A blow to the tea party, but also Democrats who hoped a Donnelly win would depress Republican turnout in November. My bet is that it wouldn’t make a difference.

– Alex Padilla will face Republican Pete Peterson for Secretary of State.

NOT DECIDED YET

– Eric Swalwell will clearly be re-elected to Congress come November. It’s not clear yet whether his opponent will be Democrat Ellen Corbett For Congress or Republican Hugh Bussell.

– It looks like the battle for Assembly District 16 (tri-valley) will be between Republican Catharine Baker and Dublin Mayor Tim Sbranti, a Democrat, come November. But I’m not calling it just yet because Steve Glazer was ahead of Sbranti for a while last night, and it’s hard to know how many ballots are left to count or how these will break.

– Republican candidate Ashley Swearengin heads to November in the Controller’s race. No way of knowing yet whether she’ll be facing Republican David Evans or Democrats John Perez or Betty Yee.

-Incumbent State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Torlakson, a Democrat, didn’t reach the 50% of the vote he needed to avoid a November runoff. His likely opponent will be Democrat Marshall Tuck, in what would be the only Democrat vs. Democrat race at the state level. Republican Lydia Gutiérrez may still catch up when all votes are counted, however.

Marga’s June 2014 Voter Guide

Marga’s June 2014 Voter Guide Politics No Responses »

May 202014

Here are my voting recommendations for the June 2014 election. I’m a liberal Democrat, and the issues I’m most concerned about are good governance, transparency and accountability and the protection of human rights and civil liberties. I only include competitive races for which I have a recommendation.

STATEWIDE

Secretary of State: Derek Cressman
The Secretary of State is responsible for elections in California. We need someone who is clean, ethical and committed to a democratic political process. Derek Cressman headed a campaign reform advocacy organization and, among other things, wants to create a vetted multi-media online voter guide with actual useful information for voters.

Controller: Betty Yee
Betty has the financial preparation and attention to detail that the office requires, plus she is committed to good governance and transparency. Her Democratic opponent, Assembly speaker John Perez, has the arrogance to believe he should be elected just because of his current position and did not even bother to submit a ballot statement.

Measure 42: Yes
This will force City governments to continue making agendas for public meetings available to the public even if the state does not reimburse them for the cost. It assures the public right to know.

ALAMEDA COUNTY

Superintendent of Schools: Jeff Bowser or Helen K. Foster
I heard the candidates speak both at the interviews for the Democratic and the Oakland Tribune endorsements. They all did equally well on general issues, Bowser and Thomas have the best understanding of the financial situation. Karen Monroe will make it past June on the strength of her ballot designation alone. Naomi Eason is great but seems less prepared. Ursula Reed has done little to help schools while a San Leandro Councilmember, instead putting her efforts into trying to get the communist Chinese flag to be flown over City Hall.

Measure AA: Yes
Not only should everyone have access to health care, when we don’t provide it for those who are most vulnerable, we endanger public health.

HAYWARD

Mayor: Francisco Zermeño
Zermeño provides the best combination of love for Hayward, commitment to the community and ability to relate to everyday people.

City Council: Rocky Fernandez and Sara Lamnin
There are a number of good candidates, but I think these two have the greatest political experience and clearest progressive values to move Hayward forward.

CONGRESS

CD 15: Ellen Corbett
Ellen is quiet but she’s a work horse, passing legislation that protects consumer rights and the environment. Her opponent, sitting Congressman Eric Swalwell, is a show horse with one intention only: remain in Congress at every cost, no matter how many ethical lines are crossed (including paying for delegates to vote for him and using congressional mail for campaign purposes). He has voted against civil liberties and opposes religious equality.

CD 17: Ro Khanna
Mike Honda is as true-blue a liberal as they come, and I’m very appreciative for his service, but Khanna holds the same essential positions, only he does it with a greater, more thought-out foundation, more vigor and intelligence. Khanna has the potential to be the Democratic Party’s answer to both Paul Ryan and Ted Cruz and a true political leader for his generation and the country.

CALIFORNIA SENATE

SD 10: Bob Wieckowski
Wieckowski is another quiet leader, turning out legislation that helps people without much fanfare. An ACLU-vetted bill to combat “revenge pornography” is just one of his latest accomplishments. The San Francisco Chronicle’s endorsement makes it clear why everyone should vote for this man.

CALIFORNIA ASSEMBLY

AD 16: Tim Sbranti
Sbranti has done a good job of handling different interests in Dublin. While he’s not nearly as progressive as I, he’s the most progressive of the bunch.

AD 25: Teresa Cox
Teresa Cox is a fighter, she’s the first African-American woman to receive a degree in nuclear engineering, and she’s very smart, pragmatic and committed. Those are all faculties that I believe we need in the Assembly. She is also less indebted to special interests that some of her opponents.

Alameda Democrats Endorse Barbara Lee and Mike Honda, but not Eric Swalwell

Alameda Democrats Endorse Barbara Lee and Mike Honda, but not Eric Swalwell ACDCC, Politics No Responses »

Feb 072014

Battle for AD 15 and CD 15 Democratic endorsement moves to the State Convention

Feb 8 Update

Congress: In CD 13, Barbara Leee was recommended for endorsement, with 100% of the vote. I was wrong about CD 15, and Eric Swalwell got the majority of the vote, though not enough to get a recommendation. The fight for the endorsement goes up to the Convention, where it will probably come to the floor, giving Ellen Corbett an advantage. Stay tuned. As predicted, in CD 17 Mike Honda easily got the endorsement. Indeed, Ro Khanna did not even bother to show up to the meeting, probably thinking that his time was better spent campaigning.

Senate: Mary Hayashi did show up and made some vague accusations against Bob Wieckowski, but couldn’t get even one vote. Wieckowski easily got the recommendation for the endorsement for SD 10, with a handful of votes going to Roman Reed.

Assembly: I was surprised to see that a clear majority of the votes in AD 15 went to Elizabeth Echols, though not enough to break the 70% and give her the recommendation. The endorsement thus goes to the Convention. As predicted, Andy Katz got a few votes, but none went to either Sam Kang nor Pamela Price-Crawley. Both civil rights lawyers were pretty impressive, however, and I’m interested in hearing more from both of them. Tony Thurmond‘s vote count may not have impressed, but he’s a dynamic and inspiring speaker and made an impression even with my very politically jaded 12-year-old. While Echols is likely to win at the endorsement caucus at the convention, if Thurmond can pull her name out of consent – which he may very well be able to – and send this to the floor of the convention, he has a very good chance of winning. Echols may be solid, but she’s not an exciting candidate.

Also as predicted, Rob Bonta and Bill Quirk easily got the endorsements for AD 18 and AD 20 respectively. No endorsement recommendation was made for AD 25, and nobody got enough votes for this to go up to the convention. Craig Steckler got the most votes, but Kansen Chu wasn’t far behind, with Teresa Cox trailing both. Armando Gomez didn’t get any votes. While Steckler called himself a progressive Democrat, almost all his campaign loot comes from police chiefs and law enforcement, which suggests he isn’t going to Sacramento to fight for civil liberties and against the prison-industrial complex. Mik

—–

The California Democratic Party will be conducting pre-endorsement conferences throughout the state this weekend. Members of the Democratic State Central Committee (DSCC) and other eligible Democrats will meet to listen to the different candidates that are competing for the Party’s endorsement in their respective districts and will vote on whom should get it. In races where a Democrat is endorsed by the party, other Democrats are encouraged to drop out.

Most of Alameda County, including San Leandro, falls within the Party’s region 5, and the caucus for our region will take place on Saturday, Feb. 8, starting at 2 PM at the Laborers Local 34 hall, located at 29475 Mission Blvd in Hayward. Any Democrat is welcome to attend.

While the vote count happens after the candidates have an opportunity to speak, in reality most candidates have been going around picking up vote-by-mail ballots from their supporters. Candidates who get 70% of the vote at the pre-endorsement conference are placed in the consent calendar for Party’s endorsement at the State Party Convention which will take place in early March – though their endorsement can be challenged with signatures of either 20% of DSCC members in their district or statewide. If no candidate gets 70% of the vote, but at least one gets 50%, there will be an endorsement caucus at the Convention, where they will need to garner 50% or 60% of the vote (depending on incumbency status), to get on consent. The same will happen if an endorsement is challenged.

In order to qualify for the Democratic endorsement, a candidate must be a registered Democrat and pay a fee ranging from $250 to $500.

Here are the candidates who are vying for the Democratic endorsement in Region 5

Congressional District 13

The only candidate running for the endorsement is incumbent Barbara Lee, who will easily get it.

Congressional District 15

Incumbent congressman Eric Swalwell battles State Senator Ellen Corbett for the endorsement. My bet is that if any candidate gets the endorsement tomorrow, it’ll be Corbett. I also bet that if one of them gets it, the other will have the endorsement challenged and it will go the Convention.

Congressional District 17

Here, congressman Mike Honda holds a significant advantage over challenger Ro Khanna. Khanna ran a successful slate at last year’s delegate elections and he may have a few other votes, but they will likely not be enough to prevent Honda from getting the endorsement. They may be enough for a challenge, but Honda is sure to get the endorsement at the Convention. Linguist Philip Bralich is also running for the endorsement, but I don’t believe he’ll get even one vote.

Assembly District 15

There are no incumbents in this race, but there are five candidate vying for the endorsement. Preliminary endorsements suggest that the two actual contenders are Alameda County Democratic Central Committee member Elizabeth Echols and former Richmond City Councilmember Tony Thurmond. EBMUD Director Andy Katz may get a few votes, but it seems unlikely that either civil rights attorneys Sam Kang or Pamela Price-Crawley will get any. The latter doesn’t even have a campaign website. My guess is that at least one of the candidates will get 50% of the vote, and the endorsement for this race will go to the Convention.

Assembly Districts 18 and 20

The only candidate running for AD 18 is incumbent Rob Bonta and for AD 20 is incumbent Bill Quirk, so both have it in the bag.

Assembly District 25

Four Democrats are vying for the open seat being left by Bob Wieckowski. San Jose Councilmember Kansen Chu battles Ohlone Community College Board Trustee Teresa Cox, Milpitas Councilmember Armando Gomez and former Fremont Police Chief Craig Steckler. I know nothing about the voters in that race, but given the crowded field it seems unlikely that anyone will get the endorsement tomorrow or even send this to the Convention.

Senate District 10

This is the race that actually makes me want to go to the conference (I already sent out my ballot). Assemblymember Bob Wieckowski is running against former Assemblymember and convicted thief Mary Hayashi. Also in the race is stem-cell-research-activist Roman Reed. Hayashi hasn’t even bothered to set up a campaign site, and she hasn’t done any fundraising lately (though she does have a lot of money from previous races she can use), but she did apply for the Democratic endorsement, so she’s presumably running. It’s unlikely she’ll get any endorsements votes, however. Reed may get a few, but Wieckowski should easily get the endorsement and keep it on consent.

I’ll post results tomorrow.